The Energy Method for Predicting the Aircraft Brake-Way

Abstract

According to estimates of numerous publications around the world, more than 50 % of all flight accidents occur on the takeoff and landing phases of aircraft flight. The main reason for these events is the "human factor". To reduce psychological stress and assist the pilot in making urgent decisions, various methods of information support have been developed previously. Pilot alert message contain information about the current and future situation. In the presented paper, we propose new efficient methods for predicting the coordinates of the aircraft on the runway during the braking phase. Predicting methods are based on the energy balance equation. For ground modes, the equation has been expanded by introducing a new member describing the mechanical resistance force of the chassis. The problem of finding the predicted coordinates of the aircraft is formulated as a terminal problem of achieving the desired value of total energy at the end point of the trajectory. This formulation made it possible to determine the length of the brake-way before reaching the stopping or taxiing speed. The information presented to the pilot should be not only accurate, but also reliable. To improve accuracy, a new correction circuit's structure was developed. The methodology of research and proof the prediction algorithm's reliability on the basis of statistical tests results is also developed. A computer stand for prediction algorithms testing was developed. The stand is equipped with service tools for registration and statistical analysis of the results. A large amount of deterministic and statistical tests of prediction algorithms in a wide operating range of flight regimes has been performed. Statistical characteristics of errors are obtained. Average prediction errors in different situations are 10-20 m. Confidence intervals of predicted brake-way expectation are calculated. They are in the range of 1.5-2 m.