Formalization of the External Environment Uncertainty in the Power Equipment Operating

Abstract

Operating conditions of the power facilities equipment have an impact on its technical condition. These conditions are determined by the state of the external (environment) environment. Deviations of environmental parameters from the required (normative) values can accelerate negative trends leading to failures, accidents and, accordingly, economic damage from downtime and restoration of the proper technical condition of power equipment. Therefore, taking into account the state of the environment is an important aspect of solving the problems of monitoring, diagnosis and forecasting of technical condition, as well as solving the problems of management and decision support in the operation of energy facilities. The external environment is characterized by different types of uncertainty. The different uncertainties of the external environment determine the need to choose or correct the way to achieve the goal of management or decision-making. Therefore, the paper proposes a formalized description of the environment state, which has uncertainties of different types. Synthesized operations to obtain states different from the" typical " obtained, for example, at the design stage of the diagnostic system or control of power equipment. On the basis of this implemented a method of rapid assessment of the external environment without a survey of experts based on the synthesis of the accelerated procedure. The choice of fuzzy set theory is justified as a mathematical tool for formalizing uncertainties of different types and subjectivism inherent in the opinions of domain experts. The concept of the environment state is formalized and typical operations for determining its typical states are proposed. To take into account the different types of uncertainty in the description of the current state of the environment, a modifier mechanism is proposed. Modifiers can significantly simplify calculations in the formalization of environmental conditions for use in diagnostic systems and control of power equipment. The considered computational examples show the main features of the proposed approach. The results of the application of the developed approach suggest the feasibility of its application to solve the problem of formalization of the environment in the operation of power equipment under uncertainty.