A Hybrid System for Monitoring the Beginning of the Process of Preparation of Strong Earthquakes

A possible solution to the problem of monitoring the onset of an earthquake preparation process (EPP) is considered by combining the analysis of seismic-acoustic and seismic signals. In order to conduct experiments to monitor the onset of the earthquake preparation process, a network of stations was built in which shafts of suspended oil wells (1500—5000 m) were used as inverted antennas as a communication channel to obtain seismic and seismic-acoustic information from deep strata of the earth. It is found that when filtering seismic signals using traditional technologies, informative attributes that occur at the onset of the earthquake preparation process are lost. It is also found that the onset of the EPP is reliably recorded based on estimates of the noise variance and the cross-correlation function between the useful seismic-acoustic signal and its noise. It is also established that over a period of time, it is possible to repeatedly record continuations of the EPP based on the same characteristics of seismic signals. Based on the specified informative attributes about the beginning of the EPP, a hybrid intelligent system is proposed, where, using combinations of stations that respond to seismic processes, information is generated that allows seismologists to use them as a tool to identify the zones of the focus of the expected earthquake. The importance of the study is that the results obtained have been experimentally confirmed over a long period of time. It was found that informative attributes that emerge at the beginning of the earth-quake preparation process are lost during the filtering of seismic signals by traditional seismic stations.

1. Aliev T. A. Noise control of the Beginning and Development Dynamics of Accidents, New York, Springer, 2019, 201 p., DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-12512-7.

2. Aliev T. A. Intelligent seismic-acoustic system for identifying the area of the focus of an expected earthquake, Taher Zouaghi (ed) Earthquakes: Tectonics, Hazard and Risk Mitigation, Intech, London, 2017, pp. 293—315, DOI: 10.5772/65403.

3. Aliev T. A., Abbasov A. M., Alizadeh A. A., Etirmishli G. D., Guluyev G. A., Pashayev F. G. Intellectual Monitoring of Abnormal Seismic Process at the Gum Island of Caspian Sea with Use Robast Strays’es Technology, Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie, 2011, no. 5, pp. 22—28 (in Russian).

4. Pashayev A. M., Alizada A. A., Aliev T. A., Abbasov A. M., Guluyev G. A., Pashayev F. G., Sattarova U. E. Intelligent Seismic-Acoustic System for Identifying the Location of the Focus of an Expected Earthquake, Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie. 2015, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 147—158 (In Russian), DOI: 10.17587/mau/16.147-158.

5. Aliev T. A., Rzaeva N. E. Techniques for Determining Robust Estimates of Correlation Functions for Random Noisy Signals, Measurement Techniques, 2017, vol. 60, pp. 343—349.

6. Aliev T. A., Abbasov A. M., Guluyev G. A., Pashayev F. G., Sattarova U. E. The development of the system for identification of seismic stability and monitoring of origin of anomalous seismic processes, Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies, 2015, vol. 5, no. 4 (77), pp. 19—38.

7. Aliev T. A., Guluyev G. A., Pashayev F. H. et al. Intelligent seismic-acoustic system for identifying the location of the areas of an expected earthquake. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 2016, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 147—162, DOI: 10.4236/gep.2016.44018.

8. Aliev T. A., Abbasov A. M., Guluyev G. A. et al. System of robust noise monitoring of anomalous seismic processes, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2013, no. 53, pp. 11—25, DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2012.12.013.

9. Aliev T. A., Abbasov A. M., Mamedova G. G. et al. Technologies for noise monitoring of abnormal seismic processes, Seismic Instruments, 2013, vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 64—80, DOI: 10.3103/S0747923913010015.

10. Aliev T. A., Abbasov A. M. Digital technology and a system of interference monitoring of the technical state of physical structures and warnings of anomalous seismic processes, Automatic Control and Computer Sciences, 2005, vol. 39, no. 6, pp. 1—7.

11. Yetirmishli G. J., Kazimova S. E., Ismayilova S. S., Kerimova R. D. Modernization of the seismological observation system in the territory of Azerbaijan, Russian Journal of Seismology, 2022, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 25—35, DOI: 10.35540/2686-7907.2022.3.02 (in Russian).

12. Aliev T. A., Musaeva N. F., Suleymanova M. T. Algorithms for Determining the Probability of Risks of Accidents in Tunnels Based on the Characteristics of the Noise of Noisy Signals. Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie. 2021, vol. 22, no. 7), pp. 357—364 (in Russian), DOI: 10.17587/mau.22.357-364

13. Wang Y., Lu J., Shi Y. et al. PS-wave Q estimation based on the P-wave Q values, Journal of Geophysics and Engineering, 2009, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 386—389, DOI: 10.1088/1742-2132/6/4/006.

14. Vidakovic B., Lozoya C. B. On time-dependent wavelet denoising, IEEE Transaction on Signal Processing, 1998, vol. 46, no. 9, pp. 2549—2554, DOI: 10.1109/78.709544.

15. Zafarani H., Noorzad A., Ansari A. et al. Stochastic modeling of Iranian earthquakes and estimation of ground motion for future earthquakes in Greater Tehran, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2009, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 722—741, DOI: 10.1016/j.soildyn.2008.08.002.

16. Sokolov V. Y., Loh C. H., Wen K. L. Evaluation of hard rock spectral models for the Taiwan region on the basis of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake data, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2003, vol. 23, no. 8, pp. 715—735, DOI: 10.1016/S0267-7261(03)00075-7.

17. Stankiewicz J., Bindi D., Oth A. et al. Designing efficient earthquake early warning systems: case study of Almaty, Journal of Seismology, 2013, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 1125—1137, DOI: 10.1007/s10950-013-9381-4.

18. Rydelek P., Pujol J. Real-time seismic warning with a two-station subarray. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2004, vol. 94, no. 4, pp. 1546—1550, DOI: 10.1785/012003197.

19. Esref Y., Serhat T., Ali P. Analysis of ambient noise in Yalova, Turkey: discrimination between artificial and natural excitations, Journal of Seismology, 2013, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 1021—1039, DOI: 10.1007/s10950-013-9370-7

20. Tomas F., Martin B. Detection capability of seismic network based on noise analysis and magnitude of completeness, Journal of Seismology, 2014, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 1