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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">novtexmech</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Мехатроника, автоматизация, управление</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1684-6427</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2619-1253</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17587/mau.19.424-430</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">novtexmech-94</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>УПРАВЛЕНИЕ В АВИАКОСМИЧЕСКИХ И МОРСКИХ СИСТЕМАХ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>CONTROL IN AEROSPACE SYSTEMS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Энергетический метод прогнозирования дистанции торможения воздушных судов</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Energy Method for Predicting the Aircraft Brake-Way</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шевченко</surname><given-names>А. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shevchenko</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">anshev@ipu.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">Институт проблем управления им. В. А. Трапезникова РАН<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Institute of Control Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2018</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>08</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>19</volume><issue>6</issue><fpage>424</fpage><lpage>430</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Commercial Publisher «New Technologies», 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/article/view/94">https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/article/view/94</self-uri><abstract><p>Разработан модифицированный алгоритм прогнозирования тормозного пути самолета на основе энергетического подхода к управлению полетом. Проведено статистическое моделирование процесса торможения пассажирского самолета в широкой эксплуатационной области. Найдены обобщенные статистические характеристики ошибок прогнозирования на характерных режимах. Исследованы статистические свойства алгоритмов прогнозирования. Получены распределения ошибок по зонам вероятных скоростей выкатывания.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>According to estimates of numerous publications around the world, more than 50 % of all flight accidents occur on the takeoff and landing phases of aircraft flight. The main reason for these events is the "human factor". To reduce psychological stress and assist the pilot in making urgent decisions, various methods of information support have been developed previously. Pilot alert message contain information about the current and future situation. In the presented paper, we propose new efficient methods for predicting the coordinates of the aircraft on the runway during the braking phase. Predicting methods are based on the energy balance equation. For ground modes, the equation has been expanded by introducing a new member describing the mechanical resistance force of the chassis. The problem of finding the predicted coordinates of the aircraft is formulated as a terminal problem of achieving the desired value of total energy at the end point of the trajectory. This formulation made it possible to determine the length of the brake-way before reaching the stopping or taxiing speed. The information presented to the pilot should be not only accurate, but also reliable. To improve accuracy, a new correction circuit's structure was developed. The methodology of research and proof the prediction algorithm's reliability on the basis of statistical tests results is also developed. A computer stand for prediction algorithms testing was developed. The stand is equipped with service tools for registration and statistical analysis of the results. A large amount of deterministic and statistical tests of prediction algorithms in a wide operating range of flight regimes has been performed. Statistical characteristics of errors are obtained. Average prediction errors in different situations are 10-20 m. Confidence intervals of predicted brake-way expectation are calculated. They are in the range of 1.5-2 m.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>энергетический подход</kwd><kwd>метод прогнозирования</kwd><kwd>достоверность прогноза</kwd><kwd>информационная поддержка</kwd><kwd>посадка</kwd><kwd>Energy approach</kwd><kwd>predicting method</kwd><kwd>prediction reliability</kwd><kwd>pilot information support</kwd><kwd>landing</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Rallo N. 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