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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">novtexmech</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Мехатроника, автоматизация, управление</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1684-6427</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2619-1253</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17587/mau.26.12-21</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">novtexmech-1679</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>РОБОТЫ, МЕХАТРОНИКА И РОБОТОТЕХНИЧЕСКИЕ СИСТЕМЫ</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>ROBOT, MECHATRONICS AND ROBOTIC SYSTEMS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Мониторинг и анализ опасных сближений автономных подводных аппаратов при движении в группе</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Monitoring and Analysis of Large Deviations of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles when Moving in a Group</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Дубовик</surname><given-names>С. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Dubovik</surname><given-names>S. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>д-р техн. наук, проф.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">duboviksa@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Кабанов</surname><given-names>А. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kabanov</surname><given-names>A. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>канд. техн. наук, доц.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">kabanovaleksey@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Липко</surname><given-names>И. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Lipko</surname><given-names>I. U.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>науч. сотр.</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ivanlipko@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Севастопольский государственный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Sevastopol State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>21</day><month>01</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>26</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>12</fpage><lpage>21</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Commercial Publisher «New Technologies», 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/article/view/1679">https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/article/view/1679</self-uri><abstract><p>Рассмотрен вопрос построения оценки близости пары автономных подводных аппаратов, движущихся параллельными курсами. Рассматриваются два подхода в зависимости от плотности расположения аппаратов в группе: при движении в узкостях и при относительно продолжительном движении на параллельных курсах. Предлагаются точные и приближенные методы построения таких оценок в зависимости от плотности группы, поскольку в этих ситуациях шум проявляется принципиально по-разному. В случае плотной группы событие столкновения не может считаться редким, и применяются точные методы оценивания состояния. В точном методе уравнения динамики рассматриваются как условно-гауссова система для вычисления необходимых оценок. Для этого используется метод Липцера—Ширяева, позволяющий учесть нелинейные зависимости в уравнениях наблюдаемых переменн ых. В случае малой плотности (длительных передвижений аппаратов) допускаются более грубые подходы в оценках. Факт столкновения рассматривается как редкое событие, к которому приводит совпадение факторов, образующих вполне определенную последовательность во времени — экстремаль задачи оптимального управления. Проблема мониторинга формулируется как задача контроля больших уклонений. Применением принципа больших уклонений стохастическая задача оценки вероятности столкновения сведена к детерминированной задаче оптимального управления. Для предельного решения усредненной системы в статье получена грубая оценка вероятности столкновения для двух аппаратов. В качестве приложения предлагаемого подхода рассматривается задача управления движением автономных подводных аппаратов, двигающихся в горизонтальной плоскости с постоянной продольной скоростью на заданной глубине. При условии невырожденности матрицы диффузии в уравнении наблюдаемых переменных получен алгоритм восстановления поперечных координаты и скорости и вычисления на этой основе риска столкновения. В статье используется подход А. Пухальского, который требует лишь управляемости системы по входным шумам. Знание экстремали позволяет прогнозировать событие столкновения, что и используется в статье для оценки риска столкновений</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article is devoted to the issue of constructing the proximity estimation of a pair of autonomous underwater vehicles moving on parallel courses. Two approaches are considered depending on the density of the vehicles in the group: when moving in narrow spaces and when moving on parallel courses for a relatively long time. Exact and approximate methods of constructing such estimates depending on the group density are proposed, since noise manifests itself in fundamentally different ways in these situations. In the case of a dense group, a collision event cannot be considered rare and exact state estimation methods are applied. In the exact method, the equations of dynamics are treated as a conditionally Gaussian system to compute the necessary estimates. For this purpose, the Lipzer-Shiryaev method is used to account for nonlinear dependencies in the equations of the observed variables. In the case of rarefied density (long apparatus movements), coarser approaches in the estimations are allowed. The fact of collision is considered as a rare event, which is led to by the coincidence of factors that form a quite definite sequence in time — the extremal of the optimal control problem. The monitoring problem is formulated as a large deviation control problem. Applying the principle of large deviations, the stochastic problem of collision probability estimation is reduced to a deterministic optimal control problem. A rough estimate of the collision probability for two vehicles is obtained for the limit solution of the averaged system in the paper. As an application of the proposed approach, the problem of motion control of autonomous underwater vehicles moving in the horizontal plane with constant longitudinal velocity at a given depth is considered. Under the condition of nondegeneracy of the diffusion matrix in the equation of observable variables, an algorithm for recovering the transverse coordinates and velocity and calculating the collision risk on this basis is obtained.The paper uses the approach of A. Puchalskii, which requires only controllability of the system by input noise. Knowledge of the extremal allows predicting the collision event, which is used in the paper to estimate the collision risk</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>большие уклонения</kwd><kwd>ситуационный прогноз</kwd><kwd>стохастическая система</kwd><kwd>прогнозирование риска</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>large deviations</kwd><kwd>situational forecast</kwd><kwd>stochastic system</kwd><kwd>risk prediction</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Литвинов Г. Л. Деквантование Маслова, идемпотентная и тропическая математика: краткое введение // Записки научных семинаров Санкт-Петербургского отделения математического института им. В. А. Стеклова РАН, 2005. Т. 326, № 13. С. 145—182.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Litvinov G. L. 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