<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">novtexmech</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Мехатроника, автоматизация, управление</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Mekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1684-6427</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2619-1253</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">novtexmech-165</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЖУРНАЛ В ЖУРНАЛЕ "УПРАВЛЕНИЕ И ИНФОРМАТИКА В АВИАКОСМИЧЕСКИХ И МОРСКИХ СИСТЕМАХ"</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>JOURNAL WITHIN JOURNAL "CONTROL AND INFORMATICS IN AEROSPACE AND MARINE SYSTEMS"</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Вероятностно-геометрический метод среднесрочного обнаружения конфликтов между воздушными судами</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Probabilistic-Geometric Method for a Medium Term Conflict Detection in Air Traffic Control</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лосев</surname><given-names>С. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Losev</surname><given-names>S. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Макаренко</surname><given-names>В. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Makarenko</surname><given-names>V. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">noemail@neicon.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Подольская</surname><given-names>Н. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Podolskaya</surname><given-names>N. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">podolsky47@inbox.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ЗАО "ВНИИРА-ОВД", г. Санкт-Петербург</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>VNIIRA-OVD Со., St. Petersburg, 199106, Russian Federation</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2015</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>28</day><month>08</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>16</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>277</fpage><lpage>282</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Commercial Publisher «New Technologies», 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»</copyright-holder><license xlink:href="https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNotice</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/article/view/165">https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/article/view/165</self-uri><abstract><p>Представлен метод обнаружения конфликтов между воздушными судами в воздухе на интервале прогнозирования до 20 минут, основанный на сопоставлении текущих планов полета и реализованный в составе системы управления воздушным движением. Метод является комбинированным, сочетающим в себе геометрический и вероятностный алгоритмы.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The authors present a method for detection of conflicts in airspace within look-ahead time of 20 minutes, based on analysis of the current flight plans. It combines both geometric and probabilistic approaches, and contains, respectively, geometric and probabilistic algorithms. The geometric conflict detection algorithm forms the basis of the method. It views an aircraft trajectory as a series of straight line segments between the route points. In addition, it handles the dynamic evolution of the trajectory uncertainty with increasing look-ahead time. This algorithm ensures minimization of the number of conflict misses due to estimation of the distance between almost entire areas of predicted aircraft positions. The algorithm for calculation of conflict probability forms a superstructure of the method. It estimates the probability level of an event, when the distance between the two conflict aircraft is less than the threshold value at a closest approach time. This algorithm produces a supplementary indicator of a situation criticality. Two algorithms of probabilistic kind were developed and tested. Their results differ only in case when the predicted minimal approach distance is approximately equal to the threshold value. The algorithm, which gives greater value to the probability level, is chosen. The method is fully analytical, so it does not need step-by-step simulation. The appropriate computer program is used as a part of the Air Traffic Control system in the airport of Minsk, Belarus, providing to the controllers a considerable amount of information on the predicted air situations.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>управление воздушным движением</kwd><kwd>среднесрочное обнаружение конфликтов</kwd><kwd>безопасность полетов</kwd><kwd>режим реального времени</kwd><kwd>air traffic control</kwd><kwd>medium term conflict detection (MTCD)</kwd><kwd>flight safety</kwd><kwd>aircraft conflict probability</kwd><kwd>real-time mode</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Wang J., Wang B., Zhao Y. A probabilistic algorithm to Medium-Term Conflict Detection with multi-waypoints // Applied Mechanics and Materials. 2013. V. 411-414. P. 2763-2769.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Wang J., Wang B., Zhao Y. A probabilistic algorithm to Medium-Term Conflict Detection with multi-waypoints // Applied Mechanics and Materials. 2013. V. 411-414. P. 2763-2769.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Prandini M., Watkins O. J. Probabilistic aircraft conflict detection // Distributed Control and Stochastic Analysis of Hybrid Systems Supporting. Safety Critical Real-Time Systems Design (HY-BRIDGE). May 2005. URL: http://web.maths.unsw.edu.au/~peter-del-moral/aircraft-conflict.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Prandini M., Watkins O. J. Probabilistic aircraft conflict detection // Distributed Control and Stochastic Analysis of Hybrid Systems Supporting. Safety Critical Real-Time Systems Design (HY-BRIDGE). May 2005. URL: http://web.maths.unsw.edu.au/~peter-del-moral/aircraft-conflict.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Alam S., Abbass H. A., Lokan C. J., Ellejmi M., Kirby S. Computational red teaming to investigate failure patterns in Medium Term Conflict Detection // Proceedings of 8th Eurocontrol Innovative Research Workshop (Brétigny-sur-Orge, France, December 2009). URL: http://www.eurocontrol.int/eec/gallery/content/public/ documents/lnnovative_Studies/grants/Computational%20Red%20 Teaming%20to%20Investigate%20Failure%20Patterns%20in%20Medium%20Term%20Conflict%20Detection.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Alam S., Abbass H. A., Lokan C. J., Ellejmi M., Kirby S. Computational red teaming to investigate failure patterns in Medium Term Conflict Detection // Proceedings of 8th Eurocontrol Innovative Research Workshop (Brétigny-sur-Orge, France, December 2009). URL: http://www.eurocontrol.int/eec/gallery/content/public/ documents/lnnovative_Studies/grants/Computational%20Red%20 Teaming%20to%20Investigate%20Failure%20Patterns%20in%20Medium%20Term%20Conflict%20Detection.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit4"><label>4</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">GRAFFICA eDEP Development Project. DETAILED DESIGN DOCUMENT. 26 March 2010. URL: http://www.eurocontrol.fr/prqiects/edep/documents/9.1/eDEP_GRD_DDD.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">GRAFFICA eDEP Development Project. DETAILED DESIGN DOCUMENT. 26 March 2010. URL: http://www.eurocontrol.fr/prqiects/edep/documents/9.1/eDEP_GRD_DDD.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit5"><label>5</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Bakker G. J., Kremer H. J., Blom H. A. P. Probalistic Approaches Toward Conflict Prediction // NLR-TP-2001-634. National Aerospace Laboratory, NLR. 2001. URL: http://reports.nlr.nl:8080 xmlui/bitstream/handle/10921/804/TP-2001-634.pdf?sequence-l (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Bakker G. J., Kremer H. J., Blom H. A. P. Probalistic Approaches Toward Conflict Prediction // NLR-TP-2001-634. National Aerospace Laboratory, NLR. 2001. URL: http://reports.nlr.nl:8080 xmlui/bitstream/handle/10921/804/TP-2001-634.pdf?sequence-l (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit6"><label>6</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Вентцель Е. С. Теория вероятностей. М.: Наука, 1969.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Вентцель Е. С. Теория вероятностей. М.: Наука, 1969.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit7"><label>7</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Eurocontrol Specification for Medium-Term Conflict Detection // EUROCONTROL-SPEC-0139. Edition Number: 1.0. Edition Date: 15.07.2010. -= URL: http://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/de-fault/files/publication/files/20100715-mtcd-spec-v1.0.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Eurocontrol Specification for Medium-Term Conflict Detection // EUROCONTROL-SPEC-0139. Edition Number: 1.0. Edition Date: 15.07.2010. -= URL: http://www.eurocontrol.int/sites/de-fault/files/publication/files/20100715-mtcd-spec-v1.0.pdf (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit8"><label>8</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Подольская Н. Н. Метод обнаружения среднесрочных конфликтов между воздушными судами на основе планов полета // Проблемы качества, безопасности и диагностики в условиях информационного общества: Матер. Науч.-практ. конф. КБД-Инфо-2004 (Сочи, 1-10 окт. 2004 г.). М.: МИЭМ, 2004. С. 114.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Подольская Н. Н. Метод обнаружения среднесрочных конфликтов между воздушными судами на основе планов полета // Проблемы качества, безопасности и диагностики в условиях информационного общества: Матер. Науч.-практ. конф. КБД-Инфо-2004 (Сочи, 1-10 окт. 2004 г.). М.: МИЭМ, 2004. С. 114.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit9"><label>9</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Pember S. J., Roberts A. L. U. Air traffic control // EP 2372672 A2. EUROPEAN PATENT APPLICATION. Date of publication: 05.10.2011. Bulletin 2011/40.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Pember S. J., Roberts A. L. U. Air traffic control // EP 2372672 A2. EUROPEAN PATENT APPLICATION. Date of publication: 05.10.2011. Bulletin 2011/40.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit10"><label>10</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Irvine R. A Geometrical approach to conflict probability estimation // Air Traffic Control Quarterly. 2002. V. 10, N. 2. P. 85-113.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Irvine R. A Geometrical approach to conflict probability estimation // Air Traffic Control Quarterly. 2002. V. 10, N. 2. P. 85-113.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit11"><label>11</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Irvine R. Target miss distance to achieve a required probability of conflict // ATM 2003 R &amp; D Conference (Budapest, June 2003). URL: http://www.atm-seminar.org/past-seininars/5th-seminar-budapest-hungary-iune-2003/papers/paper 075 (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Irvine R. Target miss distance to achieve a required probability of conflict // ATM 2003 R &amp; D Conference (Budapest, June 2003). URL: http://www.atm-seminar.org/past-seininars/5th-seminar-budapest-hungary-iune-2003/papers/paper 075 (дата обращения 19.01.2015).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
