novtexmechМехатроника, автоматизация, управлениеMekhatronika, Avtomatizatsiya, Upravlenie1684-64272619-1253Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»10.17587/mau.23.496-503novtexmech-1250Research ArticleДИНАМИКА, БАЛЛИСТИКА, УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ДВИЖЕНИЕМ ЛЕТАТЕЛЬНЫХ АППАРАТОВDYNAMICS, BALLISTICS AND CONTROL OF AIRCRAFTПланирование программы эксплуатации группы динамических систем на основе прогнозирования времени отказаPlanning of a Group of Dynamic Systems Operation Program Based on the Failure Time PredictionБурякЮ. И.BuryakYu. I.

Ю. И. Буряк, д-р техн. наук, ст. науч. cотр.

г. Москва

Buryak Yury I., D. Sc., Senior Researcher

Moscow, 125993

buryak.53@mail.ruСкрынниковА. А.SkrynnikovА. А.

А. А. Скрынников, канд. техн. наук, ст. науч. cотр.

г. Москва

Moscow, 125993

Moscow, 125167

a1260@mail.ruХрулинС. В.KhrulinS. V.

С. В. Хрулин, ведущий инженер

г. Москва

Moscow, 125167

burgoam@mail.ruШагиноваЕ. С.ShaginovaЕ. S.

Е. С. Шагинова, бакалавр

г. Москва

Moscow, 125493

shahinova.es@mail.ruМосковский авиационный институтРоссияMoscow Aviation Institute (National Research University)Russian FederationМосковский авиационный институт; Государственный научно-исследовательский институт авиационных системРоссияMoscow Aviation Institute (National Research University); State Research Institute of Aviation SystemsRussian FederationГосударственный научно-исследовательский институт авиационных системРоссияState Research Institute of Aviation SystemsRussian FederationМосковский государственный технический университет гражданской авиацииРоссияMoscow State Technical University of Civil AviationRussian Federation202207092022239496503Copyright © Commercial Publisher «New Technologies», 20222022Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»Commercial Publisher «New Technologies»https://mech.novtex.ru/jour/about/submissions#copyrightNoticehttps://mech.novtex.ru/jour/article/view/1250

Статья посвящена обоснованию программы эксплуатации группы динамических систем (ДС) на основе прогноза времени их отказа.

Принимаются следующие допущения: группа включает ДС, функционирующие в одинаковых условиях, но имеющие разные сроки эксплуатации; в состав ДС входит ряд потенциально отказных элементов с близкими значениями показателей безотказности; для каждого элемента проводятся измерения ряда параметров, причем отказ ДС наступает в случае, когда хотя бы один из контролируемых параметров выйдет из поля допуска.

Предложен единый алгоритм расчета характеристик безотказности в группе ДС по данным дрейфа контролируемых параметров. На первом шаге проводится расчет вероятности безотказной работы в течение заданного времени и гамма-процентного ресурса применительно к одному контролируемому параметру. На втором шаге рассчитывается отказ ДС при условии выхода из поля допуска хотя бы одного контролируемого параметра. На третьем шаге проводится прогноз характеристик безотказности группы ДС с использованием смеси распределений. Реализация случайной величины, соответствующей случайной смеси, моделируется следующим образом: сначала наугад выбирается ДС, затем в соответствии с ее функцией распределения моделируется случайная величина. Функция распределения смеси выражается в виде взвешенной суммы функций распределения компонент.

Рассмотрены модельные примеры, позволяющие ранжировать рассматриваемые ДС по прогнозируемому времени отказа с последующей корректировкой программы эксплуатации.

The article is devoted to the justification of group of dynamic systems (DS) operation program based on the failure time prediction. The following assumptions are made: the group includes DS operating under the same conditions, but having different service life; the composition of the DS includes a number of potentially faulty elements with similar values of reliability indicators; for each element a number of parameters are measured and the failure of the DS occurs when at least one of the controlled parameters leaves the tolerance range. The use of a piecewise linear regression model of parameter drift corresponding to the life cycle of DS is justified. The rule of correction of the linear model is formed based on the results of last measurements of the controlled parameters. A unified algorithm for calculating the reliability characteristics in a group of DS based on the drift of controlled parameters is proposed. At the first step, the probability of failure-free operation for a given time and a gamma-percent resource is calculated for one controlled parameter. At the second step, the time moment of a DS failure (which is assumed to happen when at least one controlled parameter leaves the tolerance range) is calculated. At the third step, the reliability characteristics of a group of DS are predicted using a mixture of distributions. The realization of a random variable corresponding to a random mixture is modeled as follows: first, DS is selected at random, then a random variable is modeled in accordance with its distribution function. The mixture distribution function is expressed as a weighted sum of the component distribution functions. Model examples allowing to rank the considered DS according to the predicted failure time with subsequent adjustment of the operation program are considered.  

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.